Aung Sun Su Kyi, Now, What are you Doing?

The international community greeted her election as a step towards democracy and had urged Suu Kyi, who drew huge crowds on the campaign trail, to take her seat amid fears her refusal could stall the transition from military rule.

Hilary Clinton and Daw Su

US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, on a visit to Beijing Wednesday, praised Myanmar's president for allowing the by-elections but said the United States was also looking ahead to the conduct of polls slated for 2015.

"This is an important moment for Myanmar's future," Clinton said in a statement, using Myanmar's former name.

"A genuine transition toward multi-party democracy leading to general elections in 2015 will help build a more prosperous society."

The NLD is the main opposition force after securing 43 of the 44 seats it contested in the by-elections. The party, which boycotted a controversial 2010 election, agreed to rejoin the political mainstream last year after a series of reforms by the government.

But it is still a minority influence in parliament with one quarter of the seats in both chambers reserved for unelected military officials.

Renaud Egreteau, a Myanmar expert from the University of Hong Kong, said Suu Kyi's retreat over the oath showed that compromise was now among her "political tools".

While taking office had opened new political ground, Egreteau cautioned Suu Kyi and the NLD against participating "in the army's constitutional game while refusing the rules."

Ban Ki-moon and Daw Su

Appearing alongside UN chief Ban Ki-moon, who arrived for talks at her lakeside villa in Yangon on Tuesday, Suu Kyi said she was willing to compromise for the sake of reform.

"We have always believed in flexibility, in the political process... that is the only way in which we can achieve our goal without violence," she said.

The democracy icon, who was released from house arrest in 2010, has shown increased confidence in the government in recent weeks, calling for the suspension of EU sanctions and planning her first international trip in 24 years.

Last week, European Union nations suspended most sanctions against the resource-rich but poor nation for one year to reward the reforms, which included releasing some political prisoners.

But the United States has ruled out an immediate end to its main sanctions.

Suu Kyi's long journey from political prisoner to politician has come at great personal cost.

BarackObama, He say about Myanmar.

Today marks the beginning of a new chapter in the relationship between the United States and Myanmar. Since I announced a new U.S. opening toMyanmar  in November, President Thein Sein, Aung San Suu Kyi and the people of Myanmar have made significant progress along the path to democracy.  The United States has pledged to respond to positive developments in Myanmar and to clearly demonstrate America's commitment to the future of an extraordinary country, a courageous people, and universal values. That is what we are doing.

Obama

Today, I am nominating our first U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar in 22 years, Derek Mitchell, whose work has been instrumental in bringing about this new phase in our bilateral relationship. We also are announcing that the United States will ease its bans on the exportation of financial services and new investment in Myanmar.  Opening up greater economic engagement between our two countries is critical to supporting reformers in government and civil society, facilitating broad-based economic development, and bringing Myanmar out of isolation and into the international community.

Of course, there is far more to be done. The United States remains concerned about Myanmar’s closed political system, its treatment of minorities and detention of political prisoners, and its relationship with North Korea. We will work to establish a framework for responsible investment from the United States that encourages transparency and oversight, and helps ensure that those who abuse human rights, engage in corruption, interfere with the peace process, or obstruct the reform process do not benefit from increased engagement with the United States.  We will also continue to press for those who commit serious violations of human rights to be held accountable. We are also maintaining our current authorities to help ensure further reform and to retain the ability to reinstate selected sanctions if there is backsliding.

Barack Obama and His Family

Americans for decades have stood with the Myanmar people in their struggle to realize the full promise of their extraordinary country. In recent months, we have been inspired by the economic and political reforms that have taken place, Secretary Clinton’s historic trip to Naypyidaw and Yangon, the parliamentary elections, and the sight of Aung San Suu Kyi being sworn into office after years of struggle. As an iron fist has unclenched in Myanmar, we have extended our hand, and are entering a new phase in our engagement on behalf of a  more democratic and prosperous future for the Myanmar people.

The Order , Who Give ?

Myanmar Army (105 mm)

On March 6 this year Myanmar military staged a large-scale operational exercise involving a light infantry division and tanks and heavy artillery in Meikhtila. And the Commander-In-Chief General Min Aung Hlaing had attended and watched the war-game.

The replicated field and the sand model used as the enemy target was clearly the close replica of KIO headquarters at Laiza on the Chinese border. The most significant thing about the exercise was that the whole thing was broadcasted on the army-controlled Myawaddy TV while the KIA/KIO and Myanmar government had been actively negotiating about a peace treaty.

Unlike most other ethnic insurgents KIA has so far refused the government’s generous ceasefire offer and even during the ceasefire talks in China it had attacked various military and civilian targets all over Kachin State.

KIA General Gun Maw

KIA Commander-in-Chief General Gun Maw, the hardest hardliner among KIA top leaders, has repeatedly and openly been admitting that they have been forcefully recruiting one man from every household to build up their military strength to defend against the coming major offensive by the Myanmar army.

Even though the Myanmar president has ordered a total ceasefire Min Aung Hlaing’s army has refused to follow the president’s orders and happily engaging the aggressive KIA along the border with China.  

KIA Child Soldier

With the explicit permission of China, who is gradually losing patience on KIA steadfastly and stubbornly refusing to lie down and turn over so that the Chinese companies and individuals can continue exploiting the commercial opportunities abound in Myanmar, the possibility of a major wiping-out operation against KIA’s Laiza headquarters is absolutely certain.

And the March-6 military exercise aiming at the exact replica of Laiza recreated in Meikhtila and the public broadcast of the exercise seems to be an explicit threat to KIA to be careful in boasting and frequently releasing their victory videos on YouTube.

Especially the videos of fat-ass KIA officers playing lazy golf together with fat-belly Chinese businessmen and officials in KIA-owned golf courses on the border. Warning to the KIA from the army is that your times are being counted towards the apocalypse!

Broadcasting widely the long footage of army’s latest war game capturing the mock KIA fortress at Laiza on the army’s public TV is the deviation from their normally secret behaviour for the army. Especially for the operation involving the Chinese-made heavy artillery guns such as 155, 120, and 105 mm howitzers and the latest 59D tanks supplied by China.

Myanmar Army Soldier

All the infantry troops participating in the war-game were also the battle-hardened ten LIBs (Light Infantry Battalions) of the LID (Light Infantry Division) 99 which was just withdrawn from the battlefields of Kachin State for their R&R.

Some of the weapons used in the war-game were Chinese-made short range multi-tube rocket launchers and Myanmar army has been looking for an opportunity to use these recently-acquired rockets in a real situation like permanently built-up and crowded Laiza.

But the billion dollar question is can Myanmar army overrun the KIA stronghold like they did to the KNU strongholds at Manaplaw and Kawmoora on the Thai border in the 1990.

According to many military experts familiar with Myanmar civil war KIA camps are not as robust and defended as KNU camps were and once the real war begins Laiza will not last for more than a few days.

KIA child soldier

And casualty wise, the past operations against KNU had costed the army at least 20,000 men but the estimated human cost against KIA should be much less than that and Myanmar army already had four LIDs, namely 33, 66, 88, and 99, that is close to 35,000 men, in the vicinity of Laiza already since early April.

The reason for fewer human casualty is the availability of heavy guns like 105 mm Howitzers supplied by China. During the KNU offensives in the 90s the biggest heavy weapon Myanmar army had was only 120 mm mortars. So this time instead of sending in the rifle men Myanmar will be sending the devastating artillery shells first and then the infantry supported by the tanks and attack helicopters and even the MIG jets. An overwhelming shock and awe operation against lightly-armed KIA?

By now, the Myanmar troops are only waiting for the final order coming from either President Thein Sein or C-in-C Min Aung Hlaing, nobody really knows from who in this confusing political climate.

Whether the war-game was just a threat, as a pressure on the KIA to agree to a peace settlement, or the real preparations for an actual operation to take the Laiza soon is the fact only Vice-Senior-General Min Aung Hlaing (or the chief of the PLA’s south-western army corps) can tell!